International terrorisme og kontraterrorisme

Jeg har tidligere prøvet mig med kurser of forelæsningrækker på Folkeuniversitetet. Nu bliver det til noget med et kursus om International terrorism og kontraterrorisme. Det bliver sjovt!:

International terrorisme og kontraterrorisme(forelæsningsrække)

Ved forskningskoordinator, ph.d. Flemming Splidsboel Hansen og cand.mag., MA Nis Leerskov Mathiesen.

Forelæsningsrækken har to formål. Det første er at bibringe deltagerne en
forståelse af den internationale terrorismes baggrund, udvikling og nuværende
væsen. Terrorismen har været blandt os i et par tusinde år, og den vil
naturligvis ikke forsvinde igen. Tværtimod synes den inden for de seneste par
årtier at have udviklet sig i en meget voldsom retning. Blandt årsagerne er
ændringer i teknologi og kommunikation, men der har muligvis også været en
idemæssig radikalisering, som gør, at de moderne "superterrorister" forsøger
at gøre så megen skade som muligt.
Det andet formål er at drøfte de værktøjer, som er nødvendige for at kunne
tage stilling til forskellige former for kontraterrorisme. Hvis vi i dag står
over for "superterrorister", er det måske på tide, at vi tager nye og
skrappere metoder i brug for at forsvare os selv. Ønsket om sikkerhed har
fået de fleste stater til at begrænse den enkelte borgers frihed. Men hvor
langt skal vi egentligt gå?
1. Hvad er terrorisme? (FSH)
2. Terroristernes mål og midler (NLM).
3. Kontraterrorisme (FSH).
4. Terrorindustrien (NLM).
5. Et kig ind i fremtiden (NLM/FSH).

New on the menu: Super-empowered individuals

Terrorism is a field of study with a large mob of scientists, thinkers and hacks trying to cover a lot of ground, anticipating where the next 9/11 will take place or in what dimension terrorism will expand now.

A lot of the contemporary findings are fusing together, suggesting a future of terrorism along the lines of John Robb's Global Guerillas. The speculations are, that due to globalisation, technologisation and net-centric warfare/terror, terrorism is evolving into a swarmlike, open source kind of global insurgency. As John Robb's star is rising, due to some of the novel insights he has provided, an increasing number of the mob is running in his direction. The very culmination of this new drive in the terrorism-speculations, seems to be the notion of the "super-empowered individual". This is the "Lone Wolf" in a new, techological and media-mediated hide. This is the crazy school-shooter that inflicts mass casualties and public moral panic with a handful of bullets, or the disgruntled scientist with a vialfull of disease.

So far, it is a theoretical speculation, that might not really materialise anytime soon - just like the VMD-terrorism craze in the late 1990's. But it will generate a lot of writing, no doubt. And most of them will probably end with the same conclusion: there is nothing we can do, other than build more resilient societies.

Dengang da far var forsvarsteknologianalytiker...

Dagbladet Information ser ud til at være vendt tilbage til udgangspunktet i sin digitale strategi: At lade alle artikler være frit tilgængelige. Efter et par års flirt med betaling for digitalt indhold ser det ud til at arkiverne igen blevet sluppet ud på cyber-græs. Det betyder også at et par korte indlæg fra min tid som freelance forsvarsanalytiker på SU stikker hovedet frem igen.

Jeg er mest glad for min forudsigelse af at kortrækkende jord-til-jord krydsermissiler af Silkworm typen var den største missiltrussel ved USA's invasion af Irak. Selvom det godt nok kun blev til et smadret bolværk et sted i Kuwait og ikke så meget andet så holdt det stik. Den anden artikel om taktiske kernevåben var til gengæld illustreret af en fin tegning af Per Marquard Otzen.

Ak ja, det var tider...

Bare en lillebitte atombombe

Missilaksen

Perish the Global War on Terror

New US Joint Chief of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen wants to get rid of the phrase "War on Terror" and has issued an order for the US forces not to use it.

This is an important step in the symbolic struggle against, eh, what should we call it then...? The thing with all the Islamist radicals vs. liberal democracy, you know.

Removing the catch-phrase makes it harder to put to the wall in one sentence, but might also make room for much needed reconceptualisation in the thinking on how we navigate in an environment of intensified struggle and radicalisation. It might even open up for treating this as a criminal problem, not a military one.

Arms for peace? Proven recipe for disaster

Now the American forces in Iraq have started a program to arm Sunni insurgents to fight the mainly sunni-backed Al Qaeda movement in Iraq, according to

New York Times.

Well, I couldn't help - as many others - seeing the ghost of the good ol' colonial days rise from the ashes. The strategy of arming Bad Guys we don't like to fight Bad Guys we absolutely don't like is a time-tested and ancient method of fighting insurgencies. But I still need to think of an example where this short term fire-fighting hasn't led to long term agony. Two examples:

* Nationalist Chinese: Before and during WW2, the allied supported Chi'ang Kai-Check's forces, battling the Japanese a bit and the Communists a lot. The aid involved advisers, arms and actual units. It wasn't a question of love, I think, but seen as a better evil. Today the US 8th Fleet has to be ready to ploy the waters of the Taiwan Strait, which separates the nationalists and the communists together with their huge arsenals.

* Dirty war in South America: In Argentine during the 70's there was a hefty social warfare. The Alianza Anticomunista Argentina was formed at the far right wing to perform the dirty deeds of the government. But the organisation was empowered by this and continued to make trouble, making it difficult for succeeding governments to reform.